4
Pen And Sword
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Chantilly · Prix Du Cabinet Des Gemmes Stakes · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength88%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 1 | 9th | 5th | +4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chantilly | 2 | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-06 | Deauville | 1 | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2025-08-31 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 18/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 31/08/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |