6
Sternle
3yo Filly · 8-10
Chantilly · Prix Du Cabinet Des Gemmes Stakes · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength79%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 11th | 7th | +4 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 1 | 8th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-27 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
| 2025-06-02 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 01/04/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |