14
Hartwood Man
7yo Gelding · 8-5
Chantilly · Prix De Noisy-sur-oise Handicap · 7f 209y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 7.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.12 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 87% | +0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 12th | 7/1 | 63% | 21% | -0.42 |
| 09/06/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 27/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 07/09/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.04 |