5
Septimus
5yo Gelding · 9-2
Chantilly · Prix De Noisy-sur-oise Handicap · 7f 209y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 13/11/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.17 |
| 23/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/03/2026 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 11/05/2026 | 14th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 02/06/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 14/06/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |