4
Windburn
5yo Filly · 9-4
Chantilly · Prix De Noisy-sur-oise Handicap · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Compiegne | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Compiegne | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 10/11/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 29/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 30/01/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |