Abundance
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 85
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-08 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2024-12-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 22/02/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 11/04/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |