6
Berniedott
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |