3
Federal Agent
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 52
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 19/08/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 10/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 24/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |