Hodl Hard

3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 63

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-07-17	Ellis Park	?	10th	7th	+3	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength30%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/07/2026	10th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
02/09/2026	8th	13/2	66%	13%	-0.53