My King Air

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 75

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength20%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-10-29	Churchill Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2025-09-14	Churchill Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2024-12-19	Turfway Park	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength49%

Delivery trend -21.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/12/2024	7th	16/1	16%	25%	+0.09
14/09/2025	5th	12/1	37%	64%	+0.27
29/10/2025	6th	7/1	63%	29%	-0.35