2
Problem Solved
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 79
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-02-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2024 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 01/02/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 20/02/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 14/03/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |