Fletcher Bay
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 04/06/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 26/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/08/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 04/11/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |