3
Laughnowcrylater
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-06-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/10/2024 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 28/11/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |