2
Spurgeon
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 15/02/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/03/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 23/04/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |