Susan's Boy
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2024 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 27% | -0.54 |
| 18/03/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |