Doctor Jeff
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/02/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 29/03/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |