Glint

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-28	Monmouth Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-01	Monmouth Park	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2026-07-17	Monmouth Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-27	Belmont At The Big A	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-05-25	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-05-08	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	6th	0	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength8%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/03/2026	5th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
11/04/2026	6th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
25/04/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	88%	+0.22
08/05/2026	6th	5/1	74%	17%	-0.57
25/05/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
27/06/2026	8th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
17/07/2026	6th	7/2	82%	17%	-0.65
01/08/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
28/08/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	50%	-0.36