3
League Of Legends
9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/12/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/01/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 15/02/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |