Lucky Shot
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 31/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |