Miacomet
8yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |