Secured Lender
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 26/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 17% | -0.75 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |