Social Hour
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |