4
Dr Fenn
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |