3
Halfway Joking
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2024 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/12/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 16/01/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 01/03/2025 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 24/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 08/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 27% | -0.41 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |