Hesper

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 87

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +1.4

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-11	Ellis Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-06-14	Churchill Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-03-22	Fair Grounds	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-03-09	Fair Grounds	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-02-17	Fair Grounds	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-01-24	Fair Grounds	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength35%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/09/2025	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
09/11/2025	3rd	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10
02/01/2026	4th	5/2	87%	50%	-0.37
24/01/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	67%	+0.14
17/02/2026	6th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
09/03/2026	3rd	8/13	97%	60%	-0.37
22/03/2026	3rd	2/1	89%	78%	-0.12
14/06/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
11/07/2026	6th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61