5
Mister Positivity
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |