Redacted
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |