Tiger's Legacy

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-25	Ellis Park	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-07-11	Ellis Park	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-06-10	Churchill Downs	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-05-16	Churchill Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-25	Churchill Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-03-26	Turfway Park	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength66%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/02/2025	5th	15/8	90%	33%	-0.57
09/04/2025	2nd	4/6	96%	86%	-0.11
30/04/2025	9th	1/1	95%	0%	-0.95
26/03/2026	7th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
25/04/2026	4th	6/1	68%	40%	-0.28
16/05/2026	5th	4/1	79%	20%	-0.59
10/06/2026	8th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
11/07/2026	4th	14/1	26%	40%	+0.14
25/07/2026	8th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26