Greatest Blaze

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 73

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-26	Ellis Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-06-20	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -24.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/06/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	75%	-0.07
26/07/2026	6th	6/1	68%	38%	-0.31