Good Call
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 21/05/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 11/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |