Revel Toast
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |