Special Sauce
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |