Tempting Eve
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 04/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |