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3

Tetiaroa

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 84

Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength95%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 106 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/05/2025 · OR 106 par31/05C6OR 106C5 @ Churchill Downs 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 70 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 70 parC0 @ Keeneland 18/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 84 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 84 par18/10C?OR 84C5 @ Churchill Downs 22/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/11/2025 · OR 60 parC5 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 73 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 73 par10/04C5OR 73C5 @ Churchill Downs 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 66 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 66 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 79 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 79 par26/06C5OR 79C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 88 par25/08C5OR 88projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-2th+3
2026-08-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2026-06-26Churchill Downs?4th1st+3
2026-05-29Churchill Downs?4th1st+3
2026-04-10Keeneland?5th2nd+3
2025-11-22Churchill Downs?10th7th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0522/1126/0625/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20258th11/486%0%-0.86
19/09/20254th9/276%63%-0.14
18/10/202510th20/10%0%0.00
22/11/202510th15/261%10%-0.51
10/04/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
29/05/20264th5/287%50%-0.37
26/06/20264th13/266%0%-0.66
04/08/20263rd4/179%60%-0.19
25/08/20261st4/696%100%+0.04