IvyArcIvyArc
8

My Birthday Gift

2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 62

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f 11912/06C6C7 @ Ellis Park 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 37 · 6f 119 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 37 par11/07C7OR 37C6 @ Ellis Park 02/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 32 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 32 par2/08C6OR 32C6 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 50 par23/08C6OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Ellis Park?4th4th0
2026-08-02Ellis Park?4th4th0
2026-07-11Ellis Park?7th8th−1
2026-06-12Churchill Downs?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0611/072/0823/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +22.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20268th20/10%0%0.00
11/07/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
02/08/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
23/08/20264th20/10%73%+0.73