2
Amor Patriae
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2024 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 14/03/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 02/05/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 25/05/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |