6
Coalmoon
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |