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Fear Of Union

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 92

Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Delaware Park 09/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 92 · 1m 123 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 92 par9/07C7OR 92C7 @ Delaware Park 30/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark30/07/2025 · OR 93 parC7 @ Saratoga 16/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 91 · 1m 125 · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 91 par16/08C7OR 91C8 @ Oaklawn Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m Slo 118 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 95 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 26/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 87 · 1m110y 118 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 87 par26/03C8OR 87C7 @ Oaklawn Park 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 1m110y Slo 125 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 1m1f 126 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 83 par14/05C5OR 83C7 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m110y Slo 124 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 92 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m Gd 123 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 95 par9/07C5OR 95projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Colonial Downs?7th7th0
2026-06-26Churchill Downs?7th9th−2
2026-05-14Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-04-16Oaklawn Park?1st3rd−2
2026-03-26Oaklawn Park?1st4th−3
2026-02-14Oaklawn Park?9th12th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0714/0214/059/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20254th10/382%50%-0.32
30/07/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
16/08/20256th12/137%0%-0.37
14/02/20269th10/147%0%-0.47
26/03/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
16/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
14/05/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
26/06/20267th13/266%40%-0.26
09/07/20267th20/10%14%+0.14