4
Gamblers Tail
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 29/06/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 27/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 04/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |