9
Pagode
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-04-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/03/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |