5
Penalty Box
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 20/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |