10
Stellenbosch
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |