Universe
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -3th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 14% | -0.76 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |