8
Zapruder
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 29/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |