Anthony The Great
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |