D Bigalow
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 12th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 09/02/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |