Outofpi
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 76
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 01/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/10/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |