10
Pelican Hill
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 76
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |