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9

Rockfest

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 81

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS27/12C6C6 @ Oaklawn Park 06/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 77 par6/02C6OR 77C6 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m1f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 75 par28/03C6OR 75C6 @ Hawthorne 07/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 68 · 5f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 68 par7/05C6OR 68C6 @ Hawthorne 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 5f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 68 par21/05C6OR 68C6 @ Hawthorne 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 72 · 5f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 72 par7/06C6OR 72C6 @ Hawthorne 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 5f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 78 par28/06C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Hawthorne?2nd-1th+3
2026-06-07Hawthorne?2nd-1th+3
2026-05-21Hawthorne?2nd-1th+3
2026-05-07Hawthorne?4th1st+3
2026-03-28Oaklawn Park?9th6th+3
2026-02-06Oaklawn Park?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/127/0528/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -10.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
06/02/20266th20/10%44%+0.44
28/03/20269th33/10%0%0.00
07/05/20264th9/276%0%-0.76
21/05/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
07/06/20262nd1/195%75%-0.20
28/06/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12