2
Stoic Sage
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 12/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |